British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of Sep. 21

British Intelligence update, as of Sep. 21

On 20 September 2022, officials from Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions announced they will conduct referendums on accession to the Russian Federation.

These referendums follow the Russian Duma’s formal recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics on 21 February 2022.

This urgency is likely driven by fears of imminent Ukrainian attack and an expectation of greater security after formally becoming part of Russia.

Russian forces in Ukraine continue to experience personnel shortages. The Russia Duma voted on 20 September 2022 to amend a law which extends punishments for defaulting troops.

This is likely intended to limit the number of desertions and refusals and thereby to mitigate some of the immediate pressures.

The Russian civilian and military leadership has faced significant pressure over the last two weeks. These new measures have highly likely been brought forwards due to public criticism and mark a further development in Russia’s strategy.

Putin is accepting greater political risk by undermining the fiction that Russia is neither in a war nor a national crisis in the hope of generating more combat power.