British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of Jan. 14

British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of Jan. 14

On 11 January 2023, a group of at least 10 vessels of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BSF) departed the Novorossiysk Naval Facility.

Given the type and number of vessels putting to sea at the same time, the activity is likely a fleet dispersal in response to a specific threat to Novorossiysk that Russia believes it has identified.

It is unlikely that the deployment signifies preparation for unusual maritime-launched cruise-missile strikes. It is highly unlikely that the fleet is preparing for amphibious assault operations.

The BSF largely remains fixed by perceived threats from Ukraine, and continues to prioritise force protection over offensive or patrol operations.