British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of Feb. 9

British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of Feb. 9

The weather continues to play a significant role in the course of Russia’s war in Ukraine. With the ground frozen, there has likely been little change in cross country mobility (CCM) conditions in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks.

On 08 February 2023, surface temperatures were around 0 degrees Celsius; over the coming week, forecasts suggest soil temperature increases and snow melt are likely to deteriorate CCM across the Donbas.

CCM is likely to be at its worst, with extremely muddy conditions, over mid- to late-March. Commanders on both sides will highly likely seek to avoid scheduling major offensives at such times.

However, perceived political or operational opportunities can override such concerns, as demonstrated by Russia launching its invasion in late-February 2022.