British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of Feb. 8

British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of Feb. 8

Since Russia withdrew its forces from the west bank of the Dnipro in November 2022, skirmishing and reconnaissance has continued on the complex network of islands and waterways which make up the Dnipro delta.

Russian forces have almost certainly used small boats to try to main a presence on key islands; Ukraine has successfully deployed long-range artillery to neutralise Russian outposts a number of times.

Both sides have likely also deployed small groups on the Kinburn Spit, which commands the Dnipro Gulf.

Both sides are likely aiming to maintain a presence in these areas to control maritime access to the strategically important river and to provide warning of any attempt by their adversaries to launch a major assault across the river.

It is highly unlikely that Russia will attempt an assault crossing of the Dnipro: it would likely be extremely complex and costly.