British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of Mar. 13

British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of Mar. 13

In recent weeks, Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin has likely lost access to recruiting in Russian prisons due to his ongoing disputes with the Russian MoD leadership. Prigozhin is highly likely pivoting recruitment efforts towards free Russian citizens.

Since the start of March 2023, Wagner has set up outreach teams based in sports centres in at least 40 locations across Russia.

In recent days, masked Wagner recruiters also gave career talks in Moscow high schools, distributing questionnaires entitled ‘application of a young warrior’ to collect the contact details of interested pupils.

About half of the prisoners Wagner has already deployed in Ukraine have likely become casualties and the new initiatives are unlikely to make up for the loss of the convict recruit pipeline.

If the ban endures, Prigozhin will likely be forced to reduce the scale or intensity of Wagner operations in Ukraine.