British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of Mar. 21

British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of Mar. 21

In the coming weeks, thousands of Russian convicts who have fought for Wagner Group are likely to be pardoned and released. Wagner prisoner recruitment peaked in autumn 2022, with inmates being offered commutation of their sentences after six months of service.

Although approximately half of the prisoners recruited have likely been killed or wounded, evidence from Russia suggests the group is following through on its promise to free survivors.

The certificates issued to freed Wagner veterans claim to have been endorsed by the decree of President Putin.

With Wagner now likely banned from recruiting more prisoners, this exodus will worsen its personnel problems.

In addition, the sudden influx of often violent offenders with recent and often traumatic combat experience will likely present a significant challenge for Russia’s war-time society.