British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of Mar. 20

British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of Mar. 20

Over the past three weeks, Russian forces have made creeping gains around the Ukrainian held Donbas town of Avdiivka, immediately north of Donetsk city.

The Russian operation has largely been carried out by the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic; local personnel who will know the terrain well. Avdiivka has been on the front line of the Donbas conflict since 2014; the city is now largely destroyed.

The sprawling Avdiivka Coke Plant complex is likely to be seen as particularly defendable key terrain as the battle progresses.

Tactically, the situation is similar to that in the larger town of Bakhmut, further north. Ukrainian forces continue organised defence, but their supply lines to the west are increasingly threatened by the Russian envelopment operation.