British Intelligence Ukraine war map as of Feb. 16

British Intelligence Ukraine war map as of Feb. 16

British Intelligence Update as of Feb 16

The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) continue to deploy a similar number of aircraft in support of the Ukraine operation as they have for many months.

Russian sortie rates have increased over the last week, following several weeks of quieter activity. Air activity is now roughly in line with the average daily rate seen since summer 2022.

Overall, Russian air power continues to significantly underperform in the war, constrained by a continued high threat from Ukrainian air defences and dispersed basing due to the threat of strikes against Russian airfields.

Russian combat jets operate almost exclusively over Russian-held territory, preventing them from carrying out their key strike role effectively.

Across Russia, the VKS likely maintains a largely intact fleet of approximately 1,500 crewed military aircraft, despite losing over 130 since the start of the invasion.

However, it is unlikely that the VKS is currently preparing for a dramatically expanded air campaign as under the current battlefield circumstances it would likely suffer unsustainable aircraft losses.