British Intelligence Ukraine war map as of Feb. 3

British Intelligence Ukraine war map as of Feb. 3

British Intelligence Update as of Feb 3

The scale of Russian paramilitary Wagner Group’s convict recruitment programme has probably significantly reduced from its peak between summer and autumn 2022.

The Russian Federal Penal Service (FSIN) figures released on 31 January 2023 reported a national penal population of 433,000, suggesting a decrease of 6000 inmates since November 2022.

In contrast, FSIN data had indicated a decrease of 23,000 from September to November 2022. Wagner recruitment was likely a major contributing factor to this drop.

Separately, anecdotal evidence from Ukrainian combatants over the last ten days suggests a reduced Russian reliance on human wave style assaults by Wagner convict fighters in key sectors.

Significant tensions between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defence are playing out in public; competition between factions in the Russian elite is likely to be partially responsible for the reduced supply of convicts.